‘Substantial’ fall in first-year enrolments at US universities

US universities have been hit by a “substantial” fall in first-year recruitment for 2024, along with a drop in international students, early figures suggest.

Autumn intake data from the National Student Clearinghouse Research Center shows that total undergraduate enrolment is up by 3 per cent on 2023 levels, with postgraduate intake up by 2 per cent.

However, the preliminary figures, which reflect recruitment at about half of all institutions that submit data to the Clearinghouse, revealed some concerning signs for the sector.

First-year numbers are down by 5 per cent on last year and by 2 per cent on the 2022 intake – with shrinking numbers of 18-year-old applicants accounting for most of the decline.

“It is startling to see such a substantial drop in freshmen, the first decline since the start of the pandemic in 2020, when they plunged nearly 10 per cent,” said Doug Shapiro, executive director of the research centre.

“But the gains among students either continuing from last year or returning from prior stop-outs are keeping overall undergraduate numbers growing, especially at community colleges, and that’s at least some good news for students and schools alike.”

Those most affected appear to be public and private non-profit four-year institutions, which faced steep declines of 8.5 per cent and 6.5 per cent, respectively. Four-year colleges with a high proportion of low-income students registered the largest declines.

Freshman enrolment fell across all income levels, with those from middle-income neighbourhoods experiencing the largest drops, as well as all races and ethnicities. The biggest declines came from white students (11 per cent down), mixed-race students (7 per cent down) and black students (6 per cent down).

The US sector has been urged to expand its overseas student cohort before the much-feared contraction in domestic student numbers resulting from lower birth rates – the enrolment cliff – makes impact.

However, the figures showed that international recruitment shrank by 5 per cent year-on-year – following a 9 per cent increase in 2023.

Amid increased competition abroad, experts have predicted that some US universities will become “more aggressive” in their overseas student recruitment – following concerns that campus unrest over Gaza and November’s presidential election may be putting off applicants.

The data, which covers 8.7 million students in total, will be subject to revision when final enrolment figures are released in January.

patrick.jack@timeshighereducation.com