US urged to diversify overseas intake ahead of ‘enrolment cliff’

US institutions need to be “proactive and creative” in attracting a more diverse international student body amid an expected drop in domestic enrolments, a report says.

The white paper from the Oxford International Education Group warns that colleges will face multiple challenges from the enrolment cliff, which is slated to begin in 2025 as a result of lower birth rates.

The lasting impacts of the Covid-19 pandemic also mean that a second enrolment cliff might occur from steeper than expected declines among under-represented students.

Amid these domestic challenges, as well as rising competition from other sectors abroad, US colleges are being urged to expand and diversify their overall international student recruitment.

“International students have always been critical for US higher education for the broad range of benefits they bring to American campuses and the US economy and society,” Rajika Bhandari, author of the report and principal of Rajika Bhandari Advisors, an international education research and strategy firm, told Times Higher Education.

“However, the domestic challenges that the US is currently facing, such as a declining population and a looming enrolment cliff, have sharpened the need to continue to attract international students in order to sustain enrolments.”

The report calls for the sector to look beyond traditional markets in order to maintain financial stability and the global leadership of US higher education, and to ensure institutional resilience in an increasingly competitive global education landscape.

“The rhetoric around international student diversity has been around in the US for years, but institutions haven’t yet moved the needle on this in a way that demonstrates a real shift in the international student body on US campuses,” said Dr Bhandari.

The white paper highlights Vietnam, Pakistan and Nigeria as possible areas of growth and urges the sector to seek to diversify its intake from within traditionally large sending countries.

For example, while many Indian students originate from the states of Andhra Pradesh and Telangana, there remain “untapped regions” such as Uttar Pradesh, Karnataka and Tamil Nadu.

Attracting international students from a wider range of countries is also essential to improve access and inclusion opportunities, according to the report.

With recruiters no longer allowed to account for race in the admissions process, international students are seen as playing a key role in helping institutions create a more diverse academic community.

However, increased diversity is not likely to come without its own challenges – particularly when accepting more students from the Global South.

The report warns that bringing in more students from these areas will trigger financial considerations, while they are also the most likely to be denied visas. In addition, it says that colleges will need to think carefully about how they increase diversity amid an “uncertain future” for diversity, equality and inclusion mandates.

patrick.jack@timeshighereducation.com