The predicted results of the UK teaching excellence framework are in

Predictions for the results of the UK government’s teaching excellence framework (TEF), calculated and published by the Times Higher Education today, reveal a top 10 surprisingly absent of Russell Group universities.

The TEF will see the UK government monitor and assess the quality of teaching in the nation's universities, making the information available to all in a bid to drive up the quality of education. The results will no doubt be of interest to anyone considering studying in the UK.

Universities in England's Midlands triumph – the top three institutions are based in Loughborough, Birmingham and Leicester – while not one London university appears in the top 30 per cent of the 120 ranked institutions.

The ranking is calculated from “relative scores” representing how far above or below expectations the universities perform on three metrics: graduate employment, student satisfaction and degree completion rates.

Mock TEF performance breakdown:

Best UK universities for graduate employment
Best UK universities for student satisfaction
Best UK universities for completion rates

Prestigious universities such as Oxford and Cambridge perform much better according to absolute scores rather than those benchmarked for factors such as the proportion of students studying different subjects, entry requirements, students’ age, ethnicity and gender.

Even using these benchmarked scores, both Oxford and Cambridge are counted among the top 30 per cent – the threshold suggested by the government for an “outstanding” classification.

Out of the 36 universities predicted to fall in the “outstanding” band (see below), all but one met or exceeded expectations for student satisfaction. However, four universities underperform on the graduate destinations criteria. Information on universities in the other bandings - "excellent" and "meets expectations" - can be found here, along with the full methodology.

Overall, the TEF predictions go some way to showing the disparity between universities that achieve high student satisfaction, completion rates and graduate outcomes due, in part, to selecting students who are likely to succeed based on contextual factors or their specific degree programme, and those that add value to students’ experience through excellent teaching.

While this mock TEF is based on the government’s own metrics, the methodology was limited by publicly available benchmarks, and doesn’t take into account other supporting evidence that universities will be able to submit themselves.

TEF predictions: the 36 'outstanding' universities

The results in full