UK’s Chinese student decline could be ‘sign of diversification’

Figures indicating a drop in UK universities’ international recruitment, including an unprecedented fall in Chinese student numbers, might offer signs of market pressures and of institutions’ efforts to diversify beyond the Asian giant, according to experts.

Ucas figures, published after examination results day this month, showed 51,210 international undergraduate student acceptances at UK institutions, down from 52,440 in 2022. This had increased to 56,330 a week into clearing but was still the lowest level of international recruitment via Ucas since 2014 (barring 2021, when the pandemic severely hindered global mobility).

The figures offer only a partial picture on international students because only a minority of them apply via Ucas. Nevertheless, they might offer some indications of key trends.

The number of Chinese students accepted fell from 13,180 in 2022 to 11,630. That was the first recorded fall because, before that, Chinese student numbers had risen every year since 2014, when Ucas began keeping records in their present form.

Chinese students made up 22.7 per cent of total international acceptances this year, down from 25.1 per cent in 2022.

UK universities have been under political pressure to diversify their recruitment as relations between the West and China sour, with government, media and regulatory scrutiny of their reliance on Chinese students.

On the wider drop in international student acceptances, Diana Beech, chief executive of London Higher, representing universities in the capital, which are the UK’s main magnet for international students, said the pandemic-driven “proliferation of high-quality online learning options may have influenced some students to explore other virtual educational opportunities rather than moving abroad”. She said that “economic challenges around the world may also be impacting students' decisions” and UK government policies such as increasing visa fees might be a factor.

She added: “Although there has been a drop in undergraduate Chinese students this cycle, we know that London universities, as many others across the UK, have been diversifying to attract students from various countries, so we expect the impact on institutions will be minimal.

“While these figures do warrant attention, it’s important not to jump to conclusions based solely on one year’s statistics,” Dr Beech cautioned.

Meanwhile, the number of Indian student acceptances rose from 4,050 in 2022 to 4,780. Acceptances from the US, Singapore and Canada also rose, while there was a 12.6 per cent jump in recruitment from the UAE, rising to 1,430 students.

International students still made up the same proportion of total student acceptances at UK universities as in 2022, at around 12 per cent, as UK student acceptances also declined.

That touches on a question gaining media and political attention: whether, as the freeze in the tuition fee cap at £9,250 makes home students less financially attractive, English universities are shifting the balance of recruitment towards overseas students paying higher fees.

Steven Jones, professor of higher education at the University of Manchester, said: “It’s worth noting that, despite anxiety about ‘lucrative’ international students taking places from home students, the proportion [of international students] remains about the same, about one in eight. It’s about time the sector changed the narrative here…The problem lies with the under-funding of home students, not an excess of international students.”

However, Mary Curnock Cook, the former Ucas chief executive, suggested that universities might be shifting the balance of home and international recruitment for financial reasons – but with the important international postgraduate student market the driver.

“Even though international undergraduate demand looks lower through Ucas, large [international] postgraduate intakes are also taking up teaching capacity and space, accommodation and student services,” she said.

Janet Illeva, founder of the consultancy Education Insight, said a decline in the number of Chinese students was further shown in visa data released last week, with 6 per cent fewer visas granted in 2023 compared with 2022.  

The state of the Chinese job market was a major determinant, she said, pushing students towards highly ranked universities they felt gave them a competitive advantage. She added that the UK sector was facing more competition from quality universities around the world.  

How sustainable undergraduate demand would prove to be in the current climate was a key question, she added, pointing out that although the recent ban on bringing dependants had been aimed at postgraduate students, it was “highly likely to have contributed to a perception that the post-study work opportunities in the UK are uncertain”.

john.morgan@timeshighereducation.com