International students hedge bets in unstable policy landscape

Would-be international students are hedging their bets and reconsidering their plans as tuition and visa fees soar, according to new research from educational services company IDP.

A survey of more than 6,000 mostly prospective students has found that almost two-thirds are considering multiple study destination countries, compared with a little over half two years ago. Many more have indefinitely deferred study abroad because it has “become too expensive”.

People considering Canada as a study destination proved most likely to have suspended their plans, followed by those eying Australia. Nevertheless, Australia proved the most popular study destination, favoured by 24 per cent of respondents. The US was preferred by 23 per cent, in an inversion of findings earlier this year.

Both countries moved well ahead of Canada, which was rated most popular by just 16 per cent of students, down from 27 per cent in March 2023. The UK claimed third spot with 21 per cent approval.

The results were due to be released during the Australian International Education Conference in Melbourne. The sixth of IDP’s “Emerging Futures” studies, the survey opened on 20 August – just a week before the Australian government revealed details of its proposed caps on overseas students.

Zac Ashkanasy, global head of higher education with consultants Nous Group, said searches for Australian courses and institutions on Studyportals websites had “fallen off a cliff” since that announcement. He said movements in Studyportals page views were strongly correlated with changes in international admissions 15 to 18 months later.

Mr Ashkanasy said the plan to cap enrolments – as in Canada – appeared to have been the “tipping point” in Australia, puncturing student demand that had persisted despite visa processing delays and soaring rejection rates.

He said students who been prepared to gamble a non-refundable A$1,600 (£821) visa application fee were no longer prepared to do so, fearing that they had little prospect of success if places were limited.

“People just don’t feel as welcome,” he said. “As soon as the government starts talking about this, it gets reported in papers around the world and the students respond really quickly.

“I’m not 100 per cent sure that government truly understands the power of their communication to these markets. Or maybe they very clearly understand it, and this is what they wanted.”

The IDP survey found that the proportion of students considering “other destinations” outside the five main anglosphere hosts – Australia, Canada, New Zealand, the UK and US – had more than doubled to 11 per cent over the preceding year.

“[Students] are widening their options as they strive for certainty,” said Simon Emmett, chief executive of the company’s research arm, IDP Connect. “Now is the time for governments in major destinations to provide clarity, a path forward and a more stable policy environment. Failure to do so could give alternative markets an advantage.”

Mr Ashkanasy said educational interest in continental European countries was soaring because of their “much more favourable conditions for international students”. Many Chinese undergraduates were opting for nearby places with high-ranking universities, including Hong Kong, Japan and Singapore.

He said Chinese postgraduates were increasingly lured to Malaysia by the branch campuses of top Western institutions. “Why wouldn’t I pick a cheaper option that’s still got the same level of prestige, in a country that wants me?”

john.ross@timeshighereducation.com