Pollsters hope to get “into the weeds” of the public’s views on tuition fees in England ahead of a general election that could shape the future of higher education funding for a generation.
Political consultancy Public First has partnered with the thinktank Progressive Britain and several English universities to test which options for fee reform might be most palatable to the public, and how big an issue it might prove to be in the coming campaign.
Rishi Sunak, the prime minister, must call an election in 2024, and the Labour Party has already signalled that it will look again at its funding policy for universities, likely scrapping a commitment to abolishing fees and funding higher education through direct public funding. While Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer has criticised the £9,250 fee status quo as failing students and universities, the party’s alternative funding plan is as yet undetermined.
Jessica Lister, associate director at Public First, said much of the thinking on tuition fee reform had so far focused on the economic and modelling arguments – exploring issues such as how to keep student numbers high without bankrupting the Treasury and ensuring a fair loan repayment system.
The new project instead addresses the “more immediate issue” of public opinion and what impact the various options might have on how people vote.
“We see our project as being another piece in the tuition fees puzzle: what people think about certain principles for reform, what some of the options might be, and how popular those options are,” Ms Lister said.
A poll of 8,000 people will allow for a constituency-by-constituency breakdown of how different parts of the country view the issue of university fees, with focus groups also planned.
Ms Lister said much of the polling that had been done so far had focused on the views of students themselves – as those most directly affected by changes in tuition fees – but Public First was seeking to broaden this to assess the wider public’s views.
“It is about not just working out public opinion but the electoral salience of that opinion: so who are the groups that matter in this, and are they in seats that matter politically?” she said.
Ms Lister said she felt that the current tuition fee system “can probably start the next Parliament – whatever colour that is – but it can’t end it”.
The project is intended primarily to inform Labour policy, she added, as the Conservatives have signalled that they consider the issue to have been settled by the 2019 Augar review, which the government responded to last year.
“It is a project with Labour in mind, but we are hoping the findings are going to be useful to any party, all of which are going to have to think about tuition fees reform at some point,” Ms Lister said.
Overall, she added, while the general election was unlikely to be won or lost on tuition fee policy, the issue mattered on a national level because it struck at the heart of Labour’s dilemma of how to balance an electoral coalition of metropolitan graduates and non-degree-educated, more working-class voters.
It could also be a determining factor in a few constituencies with large student populations, capable of swaying the vote in one direction or another.
Given that the election might come down to just a few seats, Labour will need to be mindful of how its moves away from a position to abolish fees will play out, Ms Lister said.
