Trump presidency with ‘axes to grind’ spells danger for US sector

A second Donald Trump administration will be “salt in the wound” for US colleges that have had a difficult few years and now face a president with “axes to grind”, according to academics.

The Republican candidate’s comfortable victory over Kamala Harris on 5 November – along with his party’s control of the Senate and, potentially, the House of Representatives – was seen by many as a “horrific” outcome for the sector.

Dafydd Townley, a teaching fellow at the University of Portsmouth, said Mr Trump tends to follow through on his threats towards his enemies – which will mean trouble for universities if his second term is an “administration of retribution”, as some fear.

One obvious starting point would be the Project 2025 policy playbook’s plans to close the federal Department of Education and return control of education to the states.

“It may well be that that is the first step as far as educational institutions are going to feel the full force of the Trump administration,” Dr Townley said.

Reduced federal input could also affect higher education institutions’ ability to “be the laboratories of liberal thinking that the universities believe that they should be”, he added.

The “worst-case scenario” would be a state-mandated curriculum driven by Trumpism that curtails academic freedom and is supported by a “hamstrung” Education Department and a Republican-dominated Supreme Court, he warned.

Students have also been a target of the Make America Great Again (Maga) movement, and Mr Trump has threatened to crack down on institutions that permit pro-Palestinian protests and the students who participate in them.

Dr Townley said attempts to ensure that gender and sexuality are protected characteristics will “go out the window”, which will result in “very real clear and present danger to those who are not white, heterosexual and, probably, male either”.

“Trump has already promised that he will make some of these changes from day one, so we could see by the end of January a higher education sector that is either massively transformed or under incredible pressure to make transformations.”

Reduced federal support would also have big implications for the country’s historically black colleges and universities (HBCUs).

Marybeth Gasman, distinguished professor of education at Rutgers University – New Brunswick, said Mr Trump’s funding for HBCUs in his first term was often “transactional” and a “political tool” rather than a genuine commitment.

“A second Trump term might bring about more of this kind of Trump ‘deal-making’ approach, with financial support contingent upon alignment with his policies and initiatives, which may not always connect with the values and priorities of HBCUs,” she said.

“HBCUs, once again, will find themselves having to navigate the rocky terrain of maintaining steady financial resources while advocating for policies that serve their students and missions.”

The sector will also be worried by JD Vance, the vice-president-elect, who is an outspoken critic of higher education viewed by many as an “anti-intellectual”.

Jennifer Steele, a professor in the School of Education at American University, said that the Trump-Vance administration will have “axes to grind” and that while education might not be a key priority, loan forgiveness will end.

Dr Steele warned that this will accelerate trends that the sector is already facing – an approaching “enrolment cliff”, waning interest in higher education, skyrocketing costs and questions over freedom of speech.

“Higher ed administrators in the US have just had a very rough few years, with the protests and emotion and heartbreak over what’s happening in the Middle East,” she added.

“It’s been very difficult, and I think that this is maybe salt in the wound.”

However, in a labour market that is being rapidly warped by artificial intelligence, an increasingly fraught global marketplace and a climate crisis, Dr Steele said the sector needed to look beyond the next four years.

“If university leaders focus on the extent to which they’re being provoked by the current administration, they’re definitely focusing on the wrong thing because the headwinds that they face are much broader,” she said.

patrick.jack@timeshighereducation.com