‘Uncertainty and volatility’ ahead for UK student housing market

Pressures on student housing across UK cities are likely to become increasingly uneven in the coming term, experts have warned, and are likely to be intensified by continued high construction costs and a volatile international student intake.

Universities in many areas have become accustomed to the housing “crisis” in recent years, with soaring rents and decreasing stock often forcing students in cities such as Bristol, York and Glasgow to find accommodation miles from campus.

Darren Smith, professor of geography at the University of Loughborough, said the sector should brace for “uncertainty, volatility and unevenness” in 2024-25 – and the latest data backs this up.

Recent Ucas figures show that high-tariff universities have taken an increased share of domestic students, while a large fall in visa applications was expected to impact non-Russell Group institutions most.

“Pressure points will be more uneven than they were in the past. The sector is becoming increasingly differentiated at an even higher level than it was in the past,” said Professor Smith.

“We’re going to see a new distribution of students from a residential perspective. I think the old geographies are being transformed in very different, profound ways.”

Recent analysis from property firm Savills found that the cities with the highest student-to-bed ratio – indicating a lack of supply – are Glasgow, London and Bristol. Of the 20 markets surveyed, Oxford, Sheffield and Liverpool had the best supply.

Professor Smith predicted that cost-of-living pressures would lead to a “dramatic rise” in the number of students commuting to campus, contributing to the increasingly “fragmented” picture.

“You have some university towns and cities where demand continues to be very hard, recruitment tends to be very strong; and then you’ve got others which have different pressure points where it’s about filling the bed spaces and hitting recruitment targets,” he said.

The difficulty for universities has been complicated further by an increasing number of students waiting until clearing to make up their minds.

The latest modelling from the dataHE consultancy estimates that demand for accommodation this year will be stronger than the increase in students overall because the demographic groups that are growing most quickly – UK 18-year-olds and international students – are the most likely to need housing.

“It is likely the extra intakes this year will translate directly to demand against the student accommodation sector,” said Mark Corver, co-founder of dataHE.

“Particularly so as it is the highly selective universities, where entrants are more likely to be mobile, that are driving the growth this year. They are up 13 per cent on their young UK intake last year.”

Student housing developers face additional pressures. According to commercial property firm CBRE UK, the minimum weekly rent needed to develop purpose-built student accommodation (PBSA) is £200, while the median weekly rent for a bed space in 2024-25 differs vastly between £375 in Bristol and £160 in Coventry.

CBRE said 84 per cent of new beds for 2024-25 are in Russell Group locations. However, CBRE data shows that housing growth has plummeted in recent years – from more than 30,000 new student beds per year up until 2020, to fewer than 10,000 for 2024.

Martin Blakey, former chief executive of student housing charity Unipol, said the number of new bed spaces being developed was close to static, which creates a “real problem”.

“There’s a lot of industry hype about activity and development…and figures around bed spaces, but when it comes to bums on seats there’s not a lot going on, and that’s simply because the cost of development is so enormous,” he said.

patrick.jack@timeshighereducation.com