English universities battle rising tide of student no-shows

A rise in students not showing up is increasingly worrying the English sector, with some universities reporting gaps of more than 10 per cent between those who accepted places and final enrolment figures.

Institutions have launched new initiatives to target the crucial period between A-level results day and the start of term after noticing the growing trend, which has been blamed on the rising cost of living and the often-onerous bureaucracy particularly associated with professional degrees such as healthcare and teaching. 

It was these courses where the issues were most acute, according to James Seymour, director of marketing and student recruitment at the University of Northampton, particularly as recruitment numbers are often capped owing to funding requirements or the needs of external partners.

“If you only get 55 trainee nurses when you were expecting a cohort of 60, that is a financial issue, but also one for the [NHS] trust you are working with which is not getting 60 nurses trained,” he said.

While previously universities focused most attention on encouraging an applicant to apply and then accept their place, they were increasingly concerned with getting people over the final enrolment hurdle, according to Mr Seymour.

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“Ucas acceptance moving through to actual enrolment is a really important process,” he said. “That is something that universities are increasingly investing time in and focusing on understanding what the pinch points might be – whether it’s a student’s level of confidence, their anxieties, the cost of living or the professional regulatory safeguarding that has to happen when a student accepts a place on a course like nursing or teaching.

“There is so much other stuff they have to do that they don’t always realise until they get to the crunch.”

David Phoenix, vice-chancellor of London South Bank University, agreed that many universities were seeing a decline in conversion rates, which had, for example, resulted in 12 per cent fewer students than expected on LSBU’s nursing degrees between 2022 and 2023.

He put this down to the large numbers that come from lower-income households; a group “disproportionately impacted by concerns about cost of living”.

“We have developed a range of packages to help inform and reassure LSBU students which include academic preparation and the opportunity to apply for part-time jobs and one-to-one career support even before their course starts,” said Professor Phoenix.

The issues are adding to long-held concerns in the sector about rising numbers of students not completing courses and falls in application rates post-Covid. 

Mr Seymour said that the gap between acceptance and enrolment can be reduced, but it wasn’t an easy task. “It is about understanding it on an annual basis and making the process more personal: things like webinars, face-to-face familiarisation events, empowering the academic course leaders to reach out to accepted students direct, to phone people up and welcome them and offer to discuss any concerns,” he said.

“By understanding this even more, collectively as a sector and as individual universities, we can improve the transition.”

John Cater, vice-chancellor of Edge Hill University, said he felt that there had been an increase in students “keeping their options open” and using university applications as a “placeholder” when they were “less than certain of their intent to progress”.

He said the costs and time delays around the checks needed for professional programmes did not help but he put the issues down largely to the general negativity shown towards universities by politicians and the media and the rhetoric around “Mickey Mouse” degrees.

tom.williams@timeshighereducation.com