Largest fall in post-92 undergraduate recruitment for a decade

The number of undergraduates accepted on to courses at modern UK universities for the current academic year fell by the largest amount in more than a decade, figures suggest.

Data from the admissions service Ucas reveal that 554,465 students were accepted on to courses at UK providers in 2023 – about half of whom went to institutions that were granted university status after 1992.

Analysis by Times Higher Education shows that these institutions accepted 3 per cent less applicants in 2023 than they did the year before – the largest annual drop since 2012.

Previous Ucas figures had shown a record fall in the entry rate for UK 18-year-olds across the sector, and the latest statistics reveal the extent of the damage across all levels. The total level of recruitment remains historically high among post-1992 universities but has fallen from last year’s peak.

This was driven largely by a drop in the number of home students, but post-92s also welcomed fewer applicants from within the European Union and from outside it.

The past few years have placed even greater financial pressure on the sector. With home tuition fees capped for English providers, many institutions have attempted to bolster their shaky finances with international recruitment but have been knocked by a government determined to drive down immigration.

Some of these universities experienced large annual drops in recruitment – such as Wrexham Glyndwr University (down 29 per cent), Canterbury Christ Church University (25 per cent) and Leeds Trinity University (23 per cent) – largely because they accepted fewer home students.

Others bucked the trend, such as Oxford Brookes University (121 per cent more home students) and Buckinghamshire New University (65 per cent).

The Ucas figures do not include postgraduate students, who make up the bulk of the international market, but do show a drop in recruitment among some providers, including BPP University, which accepted 72 per cent less international applicants than in 2022.

And the number of overseas applicants accepted into the University of Suffolk fell from 2,390 to 1,210 – a 49 per cent plunge.

Meanwhile, analysis shows that total recruitment among the country’s elite research-intensive universities recovered following a 10 per cent drop last year.

The 24 institutions in the group accepted about 3,000 students more than they did in 2022, fuelled by a 3 per cent rise in UK acceptances.

With a 27 per cent increase, the University of Exeter racked up the biggest jump in total recruitment, followed by the University of Bristol (13 per cent) and the University of Liverpool (10 per cent).

Of the group, nine recorded a fall in recruitment – the largest being the 15 per cent decline at the London School of Economics. The LSE, which accepted 23 per cent less home students, and the University of Nottingham, which took 9 per cent less, have never seen bigger falls in UK recruitment.

International undergraduate recruitment to the Russell Group shrank by 1 per cent, and it was the first time since comparable figures began in 2006 that the mission group recorded a year-on-year decrease in the number of non-EU students.

Queen Mary University of London accepted 20 per cent less international applicants, and Durham University accepted 16 per cent less – both of which were record falls.

Mark Corver, co-founder of the dataHE consultancy, said there is a lot of variability by provider, but taken together there is a "notable fall" in international student recruitment in the Russell Group - an abrupt departure from recent trends. 

Dr Corver, who is a former director of analysis and research at Ucas, said these universities may have been impacted by media scrutiny over the availability of courses to UK and overseas students.

"We know many universities already had a strategic intent this year to reduce exposure to overseas countries that had grown very large, and therefore risky, in their recruitment," he said.

"And whilst these universities are still facing the problem of fixed UK fees and rising costs, many were also keen to avoid risking future demand from young UK students by repeating the harsh cuts in UK entrants in 2022."

The University of York, which experienced a 12 per cent drop, recently told staff to take a “more flexible approach” to admitting overseas students with lower-than-expected grades, according to reports.

patrick.jack@timeshighereducation.com