A plan for all scenarios

The epidemiologist Neil Ferguson has been given more than his share of unflattering nicknames over the past 18 months, most famously “Professor Lockdown”, despite the fact that he has repeatedly been proved right.

But the notion that he is a Covid “gloomster” because of some intrinsic pessimism, rather than what the mathematical modelling tells us, will have to be put to bed, following his latest forecast that the UK will by the end of September (and start of the next academic year) be “looking back on most of the pandemic” and have “put the bulk of it behind us”.

While this prediction  was presented as a U-turn, it is less of a shift than some have made out. Speaking at the THE Live event last autumn, Ferguson predicted that the UK’s rapid roll-out of vaccines would deliver something “closer to normal” by Easter – a deadline pushed back, no doubt, by the emergence of the super-contagious Delta variant.

If we have learned one thing over the course of the pandemic, it is that even the best-informed forecasts can change as the virus and circumstances change, but it is, nevertheless, heartening in the extreme to feel that there is light at the end of what has felt like a never-ending tunnel.

So what does this sense that we are starting to emerge, blinking into the light, mean for academics, who as well as grabbing a well-earned summer break are frantically planning for the autumn term?

In our news pages this week, we report on the results of a THE survey of UK universities, which give a sense of the spectrum of teaching modes that will continue to be deployed.

The impact on staff is significant because uncertainty means that the enormous additional workload created by the pandemic continues.

When I tweeted about Ferguson’s optimistic take on the UK’s emergence from the pandemic, the replies from university staff made this clear.

“My workshops come in three versions now. It’s been hard work. Would be nice to plan for a single scenario again,” wrote one scholar.  “Yes, we have been asked to devise plans A, B and C,” replied another. “I am having to plan for 3 different student experiences this coming year: In-person, all online, dual delivery. Cannot make assumptions and plan for ‘one’ approach this coming September,” tweeted a third.

This is reflected in the findings of our survey. While the vast majority are anticipating a blended model, only a minority appear to be planning large-scale in-person lectures, with seminars and other small-group settings likely to be prioritised for face-to-face teaching.

When asked to explain the thinking behind their plan, there is a divide between those who say the changes have been driven by the ongoing impact of Covid, and those who argue that it is primarily for pedagogical reasons – that is to say, that this is a shift that should and would have happened in any event, though that has been accelerated by the pandemic.

In terms of the impact on multitasking academics, it is the case that almost all in-person elements will be run online in parallel (even if the situation in the UK is markedly better, universities will have to consider international students who may be stuck overseas).

The backdrop to all of this is the perception of value for money as the autumn funding crunch approaches, with decisions due on the future of tuition fees and a comprehensive spending review.

The recent Student Academic Experience Survey by the Higher Education Policy Institute and AdvanceHE suggested that students view online lectures as of lower value than face to face, and parents and much of the right-leaning press take the same view.

As one influential MP warns, universities must be ultra-cautious about that perception, while the incoming president of Universities UK, Steve West, adds that making a positive case for the benefits of blended learning will be key, along with highlighting the in-person teaching that will take place.

Frustrating as it will be for those on the front line working harder than ever, it seems evident that this case hasn’t yet been made – there is, sorry to say, even more work to be done.

john.gill@timeshighereducation.com