Fears of universities going bust ‘reignited if students leave’

Fears about the “viability” of some universities could be “reignited” if students opt to leave university, or stay at home after Christmas, according to the head of higher education at Lloyds Banking Group, a major sector lender.

Andrew Connors made the warning at a webinar on the long-term impact of the Covid 19 pandemic on higher education, hosted by the Higher Education Policy Institute, which also heard predictions that the crisis could herald a shift towards the “comprehensivisation” of the sector if more students opt to live at home for the duration of their studies.

“The impact of the pandemic on the student experience is hugely concerning,” Mr Connors told the event. “There is real worry around the decisions students may make now, or may make over the Christmas holidays, when they have time to pause for breath and reflect.

“The key risks are that students will decide this isn’t the experience they wanted and leave, or that they are enjoying the online experience so much that they opt to enjoy it from the comfort of home rather than in locked down student accommodation.

“If this happens, the financial impact on lost accommodation fees and the infrastructure built around the campus experience may be significant. It will reignite concerns around the viability of some institutions, in my view.”

Meanwhile, former Ucas chief executive Mary Curnock Cook predicted the rise of a “digital residential model” that could lead to more students living at home while studying. She argued that student accommodation was becoming increasingly “unaffordable” and an “unnecessary barrier to access”.

This all raised the question of whether the pandemic could drive a shift to “comprehensivisation”, if students opted for a local university and lived at home, which would create more academically and socially mixed intakes at universities.

Ms Curnock Cook added: “I can’t help wondering: will future students ever feel confident to sign up in their masses for three years of study away from home and for 12-month contracts for accommodation?”

Nick Petford, the University of Northampton vice-chancellor, said that the pandemic had “put a digital rocket up the backsides of mainstream higher education – and frankly that’s not before time”.

But more significant, he felt, would be “revolutionary” technology in virtual reality and augmented reality, which would create “mixed reality” learning experiences.

The long-term shift would be to “demand-led, stackable, modular learning delivered at the convenience of the consumer, not the vendor”, he argued.

john.morgan@timeshighereducation.com