Some UK universities could be facing “really significant difficulties” after the most-selective institutions hoovered up the lion’s share of applicants on A-level results day, a sector leader has warned.
Ucas figures show that high-tariff universities enrolled 160,710 students as results were announced, up 2.6 per cent year-on-year and representing 37.7 per cent of all placed applicants. Meanwhile the least-selective institutions’ intake shrunk 1.8 per cent year-on-year to 129,290, capping a long-running decline which totals 15.9 per cent since 2016.
That year these low-tariff institutions accepted 153,820 students, or 36.3 per cent of all those placed, compared with high-tariff universities’ 31.3 per cent. The least-selective campuses’ share this year stands at 30.4 per cent.
High-tariff universities’ recruitment this year was the highest on record apart from 2021’s figure of 163,100, when Covid-era teacher-assessed marks led to greater numbers of students getting top grades.
Mike Nicholson, director of recruitment, admissions and participation at the University of Cambridge, said this had shown highly selective institutions that they could expand their student numbers without adverse consequences.
“Certainly in the high-tier institutions, there’s clearly been a bit of a shift in their thinking about the sort of numbers of students that they can effectively support over that period of the pandemic, and that’s just feeding through their numbers,” he said.
Gary Davies, deputy vice-chancellor with responsibility for recruitment at London Metropolitan University, said that the consequences of this were particularly felt at post-92 universities and those outside of the Russell Group.
“Higher-tariff universities have the opportunity to grow their domestic numbers to underpin their bottom lines, much more so than lower-tariff universities. As the Russell Group decides to take more students, then the next group below them will take more students, and it cascades down the chain,” he said.
“It is a problem for us. Allied with the situation with international students, it makes me think that a number of institutions will be in really significant difficulties.”
Institutions have warned that this year’s recruitment cycle is “crucial” for universities amid an increasingly worrisome financial backdrop and falling numbers of international students, who pay higher fees.
Professor Davies stressed that while the most prestigious universities will be better positioned to continue attracting international students, “lower tier tariff institutions will be struggling” in an uncertain policy environment.
Continuing decline in mature student numbers also hit post-92 institutions disproportionately, Professor Davies added.
Ucas figures also showed an 8.1 per cent increase in the number of students being accepted after applying directly to clearing, with 15,120 winning places this way. Jo Saxton, the organisation’s chief executive, said earlier this week that applicants were increasingly rejecting firm offers to opt for other courses via clearing.
“The system doesn’t really work for people any more,” Professor Davies said, adding that the figures should spark a wider conversation around whether the admissions process needs reforming.
Matthew Andrews, chief operating officer at the University of Gloucestershire, said there was a less predictable recruitment environment for universities.
“You’ve got less certainty about your cohort until later in the cycle,” he said. “Whereas maybe you could start to feel reasonably confident about the intake you were going to get fairly early on in the cycle, it’s just sort of been pushed back.”
However, while accepted applicant figures for the least selective universities might be down, use of clearing creates “opportunities” for such institutions, Mr Nicholson added, stressing that mature students are more likely to apply directly through clearing.
And Professor Davies said that there were some “bright signs on the horizon for later in the year”, welcoming comments made by education secretary Bridget Phillipson that international students made an “important contribution” to the UK.
“A lot of Russell Group institutions, but definitely all post-92 institutions, will have an intake in January and possibly in May, and we feel quite optimistic about those. But everything’s just coming too late for September, which of course is the largest group,” Professor Davies said.
