The predicted growth in UK student numbers over the rest of the decade necessitates new universities opening in “cold spots” but will also force existing providers to become less generalist and more targeted in the type of student they wish to attract, according to experts writing a series of essays published by Ucas.
The admissions service predicts demand for higher education in the country will expand by 30 per cent in the coming years, reaching a million applicants by 2030 because of demographic changes and the ever-increasing pool of internationally mobile students.
Responding to a challenge set by the body to consider what this might mean for the sector, former universities and science minister Lord Willetts says it could lead to the creation of new providers.
“A starting assumption could be that every major town should have some form of higher education institution,” he writes in an essay series published by Ucas on 20 April, adding that a start-up fund could be created to help institutions get going, with priority given to “cold spots” – one of the 46 towns with populations of more than 80,000 that had no universities as of 2021.
Lords Willetts adds that each place that does have a university could also be encouraged to open a second one to “provide a further boost – especially if it has a rather different mission and character”.
Efforts should be made to attract international universities to set up campuses in the UK by offering them sites in planned new investment zones and start-up funding, the peer suggests.
Writing for the same essay series, the former chief executive of the English regulator the Office for Students, Nicola Dandridge, predicts that the expansion of higher education will increase differentiation within the sector, with providers becoming more segmented.
Institutions that can “flourish” in the new environment “will be those who are confident in their mission and respond to emerging expectations with a distinct and targeted offer”, she writes.
“The generalist university that teaches all things to all students could only have existed when the student demographic was narrow and small,” adds Professor Dandridge, now a professor of practice in higher education policy at the University of Bristol. “As economic pressures combine with increasing student demands for quality and personalisation, so providers will respond by focusing on their mission.”
Competition will be heightened by the growth of digital provision, Professor Dandridge predicts, with providers based overseas able to attract UK-based students. But this could equally lead to more collaboration between institutions.
“Given relentless costs pressures and increasing segmentation, some predict that we are likely to see more partnerships and federated structures emerging, potentially operating at an international level, and offering seamless transfers for students between partner institutions,” she writes.
“This is a particularly likely scenario if high-quality modular provision becomes financially viable. Instead of inter-institution competition, we may see more inter-federation competition.”
Mike Nicholson, the director of recruitment, admissions and participation at the University of Cambridge, writes that universities have “very limited controls at their disposal to manage their numbers”, with most options – for example, raising entry grades or introducing interviews and assessments – requiring a significant investment of time and resources.
“The only short-term response is to limit the number of offers, which can carry reputational risks, particularly if it results in significant numbers of applicants not securing an offer of admission, but the closer we get to 2030, the less time there will be to develop the other alternatives,” he writes.
This means that those applicants “who opt to cluster all their options around a narrow range of highly competitive and selective courses and universities are unlikely to receive many offers”, he writes, but also that universities should be “honest and open in setting their entry requirements and selection criteria”.
Reflecting on how expansion will change the admissions space more fundamentally, Mr Nicholson says some institutions might adopt radical solutions, including using artificial intelligence to read and sift through applications, as is increasingly happening in the US.
But the heavy investment required and unease over such decisions being made by algorithm could hamper moves in this area, he predicts.
A reduction in the number of candidate choices from five to four would be a less technological way of altering the volume of applications universities must consider, Mr Nicholson suggests, “and potentially allow admissions staff more opportunity to focus on those who are at the border for receipt of an offer”.
